Carey Mulligan in 'Shame'

Odds for a nomination: Decent. Like co-star Fassbender, she'll get bravery points for baring flesh as well as soul. Her heartbreakingly sad lounge-lizard rendition of 'New York, New York' should be enough by itself to secure her a supporting actress nod. Plus, the role is so very different from the good-girl roles she usually plays (especially her Oscar-nominated turn a couple years ago as a precocious schoolgirl in 'An Education') that voters will be especially impressed by her transformation.