Michael Fassbender in 'Shame'

Odds for a nomination: Good. Fassbender is one of those actors, like Chastain, who was suddenly in every other movie this year. His portrayal of a sex addict isn't going to be older voters' cup of tea, but the performance was so daring and explosive that it'll be hard for the Academy to ignore. Plus, doing full-frontal nudity always gets mainstream actors extra points for bravery.