Steven Spielberg for 'War Horse'

Odds for a nomination: Fair. When Spielberg directs a war movie (see: 'Schindler's List,' 'Saving Private Ryan'), attention must be paid. That said, this one also doesn't boast standout acting performances (among the two-legged actors, at least). Other directors ('The Tree of Life's Malick, 'The Artist's Michael Haznavicius, even 'Hugo's Martin Scorsese) will be seen as having taken bigger artistic risks.