
We live in strange times, folks. The way we consume media is rapidly changing. Theater culture is slowly dying thanks to lousy service, bad projection and rowdy audiences. High definition TVs and Blu-Ray mean that your home viewing experience can finally kick ass in the way you've always dreamed. This, of course, means the time between theatrical release and DVD release is shrinking. And theaters aren't happy about that. And it looks like Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland is caught in the middle.
As Variety reports, here's the situation laid out nice and basic.
Alice in Wonderland is being released on March 5th. Disney wants the DVD on shelves less than three months later.
American theater exhibitors are uneasy about this because it means they'll have less time to screen the movie and therefore, less time to make money.
European theater exhibitors are a little more than uneasy. They're kinda' pissed off about the whole thing and many are threatening to completely boycott Alice in Wonderland.
The major Dutch theater chains have already announced that they're boycotting the film and major UK and Italian chains are threatening to join them. They argue that Disney is breaking the unspoken rule of allowing a minimum of four months between theatrical and home releases. Here's a quote from Youry Bredewold, representative for the Nation Board of Cinema Owners, on the situation:
"We will lose money due to our decision; we expected ('Alice') to become one of the most popular movies of 2010...But we decided we need to send a message to the whole industry: If you don't accept our terms, we will never show your movies again."
So bear with me...let's try to examine exactly why everyone has their feathers so rustled.
1. Movies simply don't play as long as they used to. Theaters used to show films for months at a time and the biggest grossers made there money through longevity. Now, it's all about that opening weekend, maybe the first month. After that, the movie is gone. Studios see this as a reason to push the DVD out faster. Theaters would still like to squeeze the movies for as long as they possibly can, especially a big budget, highly anticipated 3D movie like Alice in Wonderland (more on that below).
2. If Avatar proved anything, it's that people are willing to pay ridiculous ticket prices to see something in 3D. Alice in Wonderland is going to be the first major 3D release since Avatar ravaged everyone's eyeballs and it's going to take over those precious 3D screens and, presumably, make most of its money from them. Theaters are going to want to keep it on those 3D screens for as long as possible. Put it in three dimensions and people will come. And if Avatar is any indication, they will come again and again.
3. Of course, one of the downsides of making a big budget 3D film is the cost. The more expensive the movie, the harder you have the sell it, the more 3D tickets you have to sell, etc. Even if a movie makes $200 or $300 million, it may not be in the black quite yet. And with theatrical windows getting shorter, they have to make that money immediately or all is lost. DVD sales are not the cherry on top of the sundae. They're an absolute necessity. They are key to a movie turning a profit. With everything in the theatrical world going so horribly wrong, they have to lean on DVD sales. They want them out there as soon as possible.
GI Joe made it to DVD in under 90 days. Sherlock Holmes is going to arrive on shelves in 95. I think it's some sort of vicious cycle. I think we'll see something big happen pretty soon. The war between theater chains and studios is surely going to intensify, especially if North American chains decide enough is enough.
So, why am I writing about this on a Science Fiction website? Two reasons, really. The first is that this 3D, big budget bullshit is surely going to revolve around science fiction and fantasy projects, the genres that tend to cost the most money. What's going to happen to the modern blockbuster? I wouldn't be surprised if we see the death of the $250 million budget in the next decade. As District 9 proved, quality can be cost efficient.
Secondly, we're always hearing talk of online distribution, simultaneous DVD/theatrical release, digital downloads, digital streaming and so forth. Of course, some of these are already a reality and I'm sure that the near future will see movie distribution change in the most radical ways imaginable. It's just a matter of WHEN. When these squabbles are settled, we can finally have that futuristic movie watching experience we've been promised. Until then, we wait

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