by Erik Childress

Once considered the biggest precursor to predicting the behavior of Academy voters, the Golden Globes (see this year's nominations here) have had to face changing times. With the Oscars moved up in the schedule, ballots are sent in before the 80-some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association can announce their final selections. The Broadcast Film Critics Association have been trying to nudge them out with their own television party and giving their members as much face time as the celebrities they invite. The HFPA deserves the edge this year in the hosting department when Ricky Gervais takes the stage, but how do they really measure up in terms of the Oscars over the last decade?

Long before the BFCA were utilizing ten nominees to boost their Best Picture prediction status, the Globes traditionally divided their top prize alongside Actor and Actress into separate Drama and Comedy/Musical categories. Why the song-and-dance features have to be lumped into Comedy is anyone's guess. All That Jazz and Dancer In The Dark are hardly frothy toe-tappers. But if you make one you are practically guaranteed for a nomination. Too bad they weren't progressive enough to nominate South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut in 1999. There is a musical on the books this year though. Rob Marshall's Nine received five Globe nominations, second only to Jason Reitman's Up In The Air with six. They aren't competing against one another in the top category since each have been put into their respective genre corners. Couldn't one argue that Up In The Air is a comedy and Nine a drama? Nevertheless the roles are flipped and are joined by Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds and Precious for Drama and (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, It's Complicated and Julie & Julia in Comedy.

In years past you might be able to look at that lineup and pull out your five Best Picture nominees. At least that's been the perception. Since 1989 that perception has turned into the truth only nine times, and only once since 2005. In the last decade of the 54 films nominated for Best Drama, only 32 have received a Best Picture nomination. That's only 59%. Not even a "fresh" at Rotten Tomatoes. As for the comedies, well we know how Oscar feels about comedies and only 9 of the 50 nominees in the Globes second category have been tapped by the Academy. And those included Chicago, Moulin Rouge and the hysterical comedy, Ray. Overall that's still only nine films that the Academy has broke ranks with the Globes on and with TEN Picture nominees this year, that 82% has a chance at going up. Not a great chance since only six of the Globes choices are favored for nods.

The Director category doesn't bode much higher, going 33-for-53 since 1999 and putting the nominees at a 62% chance with the Academy. Out of Kathryn Bigelow, James Cameron, Clint Eastwood, Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino, which three do you pose as the locks based on those numbers? The Screenwriters have a better chance since the Globes solo category doubles at the Oscars. They are boosted with an 86% chance (43-of-50) in that time and that might give some hope to Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell for District 9 which received a nomination this morning along with The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, It's Complicated, and Up In The Air. Of the four, only Nancy Meyers' script failed to receive a BFCA nomination yesterday and only The Man Who Wasn't There (2001) and About Schmidt (2002) didn't receive Oscar nods when being nominated by both groups in this period.

Moving over to the acting category which watches its potential nominees drop from ten to five, Best Actor has watched 43 of its 101 Drama/Comedy/Musical Globe selections secure a nomination (36 from Drama and 7 from Comedy) since 1999. And 44 of its Actresses, although a little closer split with 29 in Drama and 15 in Comedy. This year in Drama you have Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up In The Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), and Tobey Maguire (Brothers). Truly, one of these things is not like the other. Those first four I would put at a higher percentage than the category's 72% record than Mr. Maguire. Could that fourth slot be filled with either Matt Damon (The Informant!), Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine), Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer) or Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man) in the Comedy department? And if Jamie Foxx can be put into the "Musical" category for Ray, why is Jeff Bridges put into Drama for Crazy Heart? That film's at least as much a musical as Taylor Hackford's film was. Knock Downey out of there, slide Bridges in and BAM! you have room for Jeremy Renner from The Hurt Locker. Wake up, Foreign Press!

Over on the Dramatic Actress side with the 57% approval from the Academy you have Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria), Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education) and Gabourey Sidibe (Precious). This should be the first of two losses on the evening for Miss Bullock, but there could be something in the air for her Oscar hopes. That stench just happens to be The Blind Side, but with a hot box office tally and a second nomination after the BFCA's yesterday, Sandra, like it or not, is in the running. Just as she is on the Comedy side of things, nominated by the Globes for The Proposal (leave it to them to give nominations to two of the worst films of the year) along with Marion Cotillard (Nine), Julia Roberts (Duplicity) receiving her 7th Globe nod, and Meryl Streep also doubling up with Julie & Julia and It's Complicated, giving her (count 'em) 25 Golden Globe nominations and the third time she has received two in a single year. Streep, Mulligan and Sidibe are likely shoo-ins at this point. But look closely at the other nominees. Your remaining two slots will likely be filled by a pair in there.

Supporting Actor has been 36-of-52 (69%) over the past decade. Looking at the Globes list if you needed to lock in three, you might want to go with Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) and Woody Harrelson (The Messenger). The wild card is Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) for his portrayal of Tolstoy. Reviews have been spotty at best, including two "skip-its" on At the Movies this past weekend. It's the kind of accented costume drama these voters love, but it may need some SAG support on Thursday to keep it in the conversation. At the moment Plummer could potentially replace Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles) or Alfred Molina (An Education), neither of whom nominated by the Globes in favor of Matt Damon (Invictus), who joins Streep and Bullock as a double-nominee this year in film. Are we witnessing a shift in Damon's chances from Lead (where he's far superior in The Informant!) to Supporting where we practically don't even see him play Rugby.

Finally, the Globes have been kind to the Supporting Actress race the last ten years, sporting a 78% road to an Oscar nomination. This year's hopefuls include the duo from Up In The Air (Vera Farmiga & Anna Kendrick), Penelope Cruz (Nine), Julianne Moore (A Single Man) and Mo'Nique Dearest (Precious). That could be your Oscar list right there. The BFCA hedged their bets with six nominees in each acting category and added Samantha Morton for The Messenger. The real question is if anyone can step up to stop the Precious train from rolling to victory? Are Farmiga and Kendrick doomed to go the Almost Famous route or will voters find a way to give us another Marisa Tomei, Juliette Binoche, Marcia Gay Harden or Tilda Swinton moment? The Academy won't have to pay any of the others to give their Oscar speech.