Slumdog MillionaireIt may be churlish after all these years to repeat the old Hollywood joke that on the night of the Golden Globes, you can't get a good waiter anywhere in town. Not that the reference is any less valid; the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, whose 100-plus members present the awards, is still a hodge-podge of mostly freelance entertainment writers and TV/film groupies who may have to carry extra day or night jobs to make a living in La-La-Land. Slumdog MillionaireIt may be churlish after all these years to repeat the old Hollywood joke that on the night of the Golden Globes, you can't get a good waiter anywhere in town. Not that the reference is any less valid; the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, whose 100-plus members present the awards, is still a hodge-podge of mostly freelance entertainment writers and TV/film groupies who may have to carry extra day or night jobs to make a living in La-La-Land.

But as much as the HFPA gets under the skin of professional critics, the simple truth is that their awards (nominations come out Dec. 15, the show follows Jan. 17) have more influence on the Oscar process than all the critics' group awards and individual top 10 lists combined. Where stars once looked down their noses at the show put on by the media outsiders, they now treat the voters like old and valued friends and covet their spots on their ballots.

As a show, the Globe Awards event is the greatest dress rehearsal in show-biz. When you hear a good acceptance speech there, you know you may hear it again at the Oscars. It is the third most-watched awards show, behind the Oscars and the Grammys, and the evening -- with its sit-down dinner, free-flowing booze and its casual manner -- has taken on the patina of Hollywood's Best Party. It is on the only public occasion where TV stars mingle with movie stars on equal footing. And a good time is had by all.

From an Oscar purist's standpoint, however, it is still a joke. The foreign press members generally follow the mandates of their foreign outlets, which is to promote the films and stars that are important Over There. There are many exceptions, moments when a majority of the foreign press get behind a small art film with little interest to folks abroad. But for the most part, Globe ballots are everything the grand poobahs of the Academy wish the Oscars were -- loaded with internationally popular stars and missing all those craft awards that slow the Oscars to a crawl.

To get as many big stars in attendance as possible, the foreign press long ago came up with double ballots for the three top categories. There is a Best Motion Picture, Drama as well as a Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy. And the same two for Best Actor and Best Actress. That's 30 spots for high-profile nominees compared (until this year) to just 15 for the Oscars.

The Oscar nominations tend to look more like more like the Globes' Best Picture Drama ballot than Musical or Comedy, but that second category gives the Globes a chance to bring stars to the show who will bring more fans to the telecast. Thus, the presence of the commercially successful, critically-drubbed 'Mamma Mia' on last year's Best Musical/Comedy ballot, and the attendance of Dustin Hoffman ('Last Chance Harvey') and Colin Farrell ('In Bruges'), whose movies would prove too light and less filling for the Academy.

But this year, the Academy threw the foreign press a curve by expanding its Best Picture field to 10. In doing so, the Academy gambled that its approximately 6,000 voting members would emulate the foreign press and throw some 'Mamma Mias' into the mix. We'll see when those nominations are announced Feb 2: it seems more likely that the Academy voters will merely add more artistically ambitious movies to their Best Picture ballot.

In the meantime, the foreign writers have their work cut out deciding how to squeeze serious movies and international hits into two separate categories. Will they slip a drama or two into the comedy/musical category? They've done it before. With the likelihood of the Pixar cartoon 'Up' receiving an Oscar nomination for Best Picture and Best Animated Feature, will the foreign press beat them to that double-punch? Will they put the George Clooney comedy/drama 'Up in the Air' on the drama ballot or on the comedy/musical ballot? The tension is killing me (no, wait, okay, it was just a cramp).

Anyway, here's an early forecast of how the lead Globe nominations may look:

Best Motion Picture -- Drama
'Avatar'
'An Education'
'The Hurt Locker'
'Invictus'
'Precious: Based on the Novel Push By Sapphire'

Best Motion Picture -- Musical or Comedy
'Inglourious Basterds'
'It's Complicated'
'Nine'
'Up'
'Up in the Air'