By: Erik Childress

It's sad that every year the awards season is kicked off with the National Board of Review (see our post from yesterday for the complete list of winners). As unknown as the members of the MPAA or the Hollywood Foreign Press – and about as credible as serious-minded critics of film – we nevertheless entrust their choices to help steer our curiosity towards the eventual Oscar nominees. Christening this flying wasp yesterday with the announcement that Up In The Air has taken their prize for Best Picture of 2009, they can now await their RSVP from George Clooney, amongst others to their annual party. Which is what it's really all about for them. But if the Academy Awards have taught us anything, it's to respect the trends and traditions in place. Plus a few people who have seen only about a quarter of the films released this year could use a tip in the right direction.

Coming up tops is indeed Jason Reitman's Up In The Air, widely considered to be a frontrunner for this year's Best Picture honors at the Oscars. The film certainly has a leg up for a nomination with this win as 9 of the last 10 NBR winners have gone on to a nod. Quills was the lone holdout in 2000. But only three of their choices in that time (American Beauty, No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire) have jetted on to winning the big prize.

Could Up In The Air represent a three-peat for the party crowd? Clooney has a plus-one for his Best Actor crown from the group, sharing the award with Morgan Freeman for Clint Eastwood's Invictus. Eastwood himself didn't have much luck at the Oscars last year when he won NBR's Best Actor trophy for Gran Torino and he was only one of three not to go onto a nomination in the last decade after getting the first win out of the "official" box. The NBR had a four-year winning streak in picking the eventual Oscar winner here from 2003-06 and both Clooney and Freeman are looking good for nominations.

Eastwood does walk away with another victory here in the Best Director category where only four of the last ten choices have gone on to an Oscar nomination. Ang Lee and Martin Scorsese both won in 2005 & 2006, respectively, after getting the NBR award. Looking more and more like a lock is Carey Mulligan, universally praised for her work in An Education. You have to go back to Mia Farrow for 1990's Alice to find the last NBR winner not to at least snag an Oscar nod. Only Julia Roberts (Erin Brokovich), Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) and Helen Mirren (The Queen) have come out golden though. Getting a huge boost into the discussion though is Woody Harrelson for his strong supporting turn in The Messenger. A wildcard if there ever was one, Harrelson might be in good company with nine of the last ten NBR winners for Supporting Actor have received a nomination. They haven't called a victory since the double-dip of Jim Broadbent (Iris) and Chris Cooper (Adaptation) from 2001-02 but haven't missed a nomination in nine years since they double-dipped Philip Seymour Hoffman for his work in 1999's Magnolia and The Talented Mr. Ripley.

Up In The Air also received a pair of other victories, including Anna Kendrick as Best Supporting Actress where the NBR is only 50% since 1999, but did chalk up their first Oscar winner in the category last year with Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) since Juliette Binoche split the award with Kristin Scott-Thomas for The English Patient in 1996. It also won for its Adapted Screenplay by Reitman and Sheldon Turner while Joel & Ethan Coen took the Original prize for A Serious Man. Since the NBR rightly divided the Screenplay category in 2003, five of their seven choices in each have gone on to a nomination. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Juno went onto to win Original Screenplay in that time as did No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire win for Adapted.

Has the race been dramatically altered by the NBR laying claim to being first without seeing Avatar with the rest of the country next week? Hardly. Only the welcome shout-out to Harrelson throw an unexpected wrinkle into that race which is already expecting the likes of Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), Peter Sarsgaard (An Education), Stanley Tucci (for Julia & Julia or The Lovely Bones) and possibly Christian McKay for Me & Orson Welles if voters get on the bandwagon soon. Just as they should for Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker who was given the Male Breakthrough Performance of the Year from the Board. Hopefully this award does not curse his chances since only two of their last ten selections (Ryan Gosling & Terrence Howard) went onto nominations. Things look more promising for Oprah flavor of the month, Gabourey Sidibe who took the Female side of this award for Precious.

While NBR's choices for what constitutes a breakthrough over the years remains questionable (Charlize Theron for Monster after seven years of premium film roles?), their last four choices – and six of their last eleven – have been nominated with three of them (Theron, Hilary Swank and Jennifer Hudson) coming up winners. Maybe curses can work both ways.